Greece is facing a major demographic challenge, with European Commission projections pointing to a significantly smaller and older population over the coming decades. According to figures presented in the 2027 Ageing Report, the country's population is projected to decline from approximately 10.4 million in 2025 to just 7.6 million by 2080.

This represents a loss of around 2.8 million residents, highlighting the scale of the demographic transformation expected to affect Greek society, the economy, the labour market and the sustainability of the country's pension system.

Greece's Population Set to Decline Steadily

The projected population decline is not expected to occur suddenly. Instead, Greece is likely to experience a gradual demographic contraction extending over several decades.

According to the European Commission's projections, the country's population is expected to evolve as follows:

  • 2025: 10.4 million

  • 2030: 10.2 million

  • 2040: 9.7 million

  • 2050: 9.2 million

  • 2060: 8.6 million

  • 2070: 8.0 million

  • 2080: 7.6 million

These figures suggest that Greece's population will continue shrinking throughout the projection period, with no substantial reversal of the trend currently anticipated.

An Increasingly Ageing Society

Beyond the decline in population numbers, Greece faces another major challenge: a fundamental shift in its age structure.

The proportion of elderly residents is expected to increase considerably, particularly among people aged 80 and over.

This demographic transformation is not limited to Greece. Across the European Union, the share of people aged 65 and above is projected to rise from 22% in 2025 to 33% by 2080.

The increase is even more pronounced among those aged over 80, whose share of the EU population is expected to grow from 6% to 14%.

At the same time, the proportion of working-age residents between 20 and 64 is projected to decline, raising concerns about labour availability and the financing of social security systems.

Growing Pressure on Pensions and the Labour Market

Population ageing is expected to place increasing pressure on pension systems across Europe, including Greece.

As the number of retirees grows relative to the working-age population, maintaining a sustainable balance between social security contributions and pension expenditure will become increasingly difficult.

One of the clearest indicators of this challenge is the EU's old-age dependency ratio, which measures the number of people aged 65 and above relative to those aged between 20 and 64.

The ratio is projected to increase from 38% in 2025 to 65% by 2080.

In practical terms, while approximately 26 working-age individuals currently correspond to every ten elderly people, that figure could fall to fewer than 16 by 2080.

Such developments could have far-reaching consequences for pension financing, economic productivity, workforce availability and the growing demand for healthcare and long-term care services.

Fertility Rates Expected to Improve Slightly

Despite the challenging demographic outlook, the projections indicate a modest improvement in Greece's fertility rate.

The average number of children per woman is expected to increase from approximately 1.2 to 1.45 during the projection period.

However, this improvement would remain insufficient to reverse the country's population decline.

The projected fertility rate would still be significantly below the replacement level of approximately 2.1 children per woman, generally considered necessary to maintain a stable population over time in the absence of migration.

Europeans Are Expected to Live Longer

Another important factor shaping Europe's demographic future is increasing life expectancy.

According to the projections, male life expectancy across the European Union is expected to rise from approximately 79 years in 2025 to 86 years by 2080.

For women, life expectancy is projected to increase from around 84 years to 90 years over the same period.

While longer lives represent a significant achievement for healthcare and living standards, they also create additional challenges for pension systems, healthcare infrastructure and social care provision.

Economic and Social Consequences for Greece

Greece's demographic outlook extends far beyond population statistics.

A smaller workforce could affect economic growth, investment, productivity and the ability of businesses to recruit skilled employees.

At the same time, an ageing population is likely to increase demand for healthcare services, retirement benefits and long-term care.

Regional inequalities could also become more pronounced, particularly in rural areas and smaller communities already experiencing population decline.

Addressing these challenges will require long-term policies aimed at supporting families, improving conditions for younger generations and encouraging economically active people to remain in or return to Greece.

A Defining Challenge for the Coming Decades

The European Commission's demographic projections underline the importance of preparing for structural changes that will reshape Greece over the next half-century.

The central question is not simply how many people will live in the country by 2080, but how Greek society will maintain economic resilience, intergenerational solidarity and sustainable public services with a smaller and substantially older population.

The demographic challenge is therefore set to become one of the most important long-term issues facing Greece's economy and society.